First Alert Forecast: Potential tropical cyclone developing this week

HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) - As we face the peak of hurricane season, the waters to our southeast (SE) are warming up and that leads to fuel for potential tropical cyclones.

We already have a storm over the Eastern Pacific, named “Gilma.” Gilma will head north and most likely fizzle out, but we may see some remnant rain and surf — it does not appear to be a big threat overall.

That is a different story for another area of concern. We are carefully watching an area of disorganized thunderstorms close to where the Eastern Pacific basin meets the Central Pacific basin to spawn another storm.

Long range weather models are showing a higher chance for development into this week with a favorable environment for that to our SE. And long range weather models have been having a hard time with the timing of when the ingredients may come together this week.

With the latest runs, it appears as early as Tuesday into Wednesday, we will start seeing more organized circulation in this cluster of thunderstorms where a tropical cyclone will be born.

But, there is still lots of uncertainty.

It’s name will depend on the origin of the storm; if it becomes more organized over the Eastern Pacific, it will be given the name “Hector,” that’s if another storm over the Eastern Pacific doesn’t develop before it. If it forms over the Central Pacific, it will be given a Hawaiian name “Hone.”

But I think, models are leaning more towards development a little farther east — so Hector may be next in line.

There is still a lot of uncertainty to which path it will take. Many models suggest that it will stay to our south, but Hawaii Island will see the most impacts. The latest models shows it in our neighborhood late Saturday into Monday with the storm’s center staying to our south, with its closest pass to Hawaii Island.

If this model run holds true, Hawaii Island will need to prepare for potential heavy rain, some wind, and all of the islands will face bigger surf.

It is always tricky when a storm comes from the south, so even though the current models suggest it won’t make landfall. The projected path will change day by day and we will have to watch it from start to finish.

This is a good time to look over your disaster kit and talk about a plan with your family.

Your First Alert team will diligently keep an eye on the potential impacts. Stay tuned to the latest information on the Hawaii News Now Weather app.

Copyright 2024 Hawaii News Now. All rights reserved.